Skier Slider Rider Glider Alert! It aint pretty when the nippy leaves you.

This is a long text-intensive post sooooo… let’s dance first: (whatever happened to the Canadian Michael Hutchence?) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a8SSDvDI5yg

Ouch! Get your trips, treks, tours and traverses terminated today. Warm Maritime air continues beating-back remnant, nippy Polar air. A level-one beat-down occurs tomorrow followed by a Wugly, Mugly influx of Warmth and Moisture on the weekend. And gee, I know dudes going to Mt. Baker for the weekend. Helpfully, the forecast is mitigating all my bad feelings about not making the A-list invite for this trip. MATT M THAT WOULD BE YOU!!!!!!

1) Here’s the overview:

An upper low over the BC Interior will move to western Alberta late this afternoon. South of the low, strong westerly flow extends across the BC Interior (south) into Washington State. A weak storm moving across Vancouver Island and Washington State will give snow to alpine areas near the border this morning.

A second more developed system will move across the South Coast Wednesday morning spreading snow to alpine areas before freezing levels rise sharply near midday. Rain will become mixed rain and snow as the warmer air moves in.

In the extended period a series of fronts will swing across the coast. The first system moves across the South Coast Thursday. A second system will move toward the North Coast Friday then slide over the South Coast Saturday. SW flow on Saturday should give significant QPF and high freezing levels to the South Coast.

There is agreement amongst the models with regards to timing and locating the precip with the tonight’s system. In the extended period there is moderate agreement.

2) Here’s some nasty numerical numbers from the Canadian Global model that you should consider a ‘flag’ only at this point. (I.e. this should get your attention but not elicit triple-digit-dropping re: the Weekend)

NORTH COASTAL
ID Station Today Night Day2 Day3 Day4 Day5 Day6 Day7 Day8 Day9 Day10
YPR PRINCE RUPERT 0 0 0 1 23 44 20 13 14 16 10
RAINBOW SUMMIT 0 0 0 2 26 50 23 15 16 19 12
YXT TERRACE 0 0 2 1 22 28 12 6 8 10 7
HSW STEWART 0 0 0 1 9 28 13 12 10 11 8
HDS DISRAELI RAWS 0 0 0 1 11 38 18 13 13 14 10
V47 BEAR PASS 0 0 0 1 5 13 7 6 5 6 5
HBC BELLA COOLA 1 0 6 2 21 20 17 8 10 11 6
V24 SCAR CREEK 0 7 11 9 10 41 14 6 11 12 5
YZP SANDSPIT 0 0 1 1 23 11 6 6 11 8 7
HKM KITIMAT 0 0 3 1 34 39 16 9 12 15 10
AF2 BELLA BELLA 0 0 12 9 40 34 29 13 19 16 14
YBD BELLA COOLA A 0 0 6 2 21 19 16 7 10 10 5
HBC BELLA COOLA 1 0 6 2 21 20 17 8 10 11 6
FAN ANAHIM LAKE 0 0 2 1 0 1 2 1 2 2 1
WPU PUNTZI MTN 0 0 3 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0
YYD SMITHERS 0 0 1 1 6 8 4 1 3 4 2
SOUTH COASTAL
ID Station Today Night Day2 Day3 Day4 Day5 Day6 Day7 Day8 Day9 Day10
WAE WHIST-BLACK 0 3 8 18 2 36 25 9 18 18 9
VOA WHISTLER HIGH 0 4 9 21 2 39 26 10 19 18 9
VOD CALLAGHAN 0 4 7 19 2 42 26 10 18 19 10
V43 BLACKCOMB 0 4 9 21 2 34 25 9 18 17 9
WGP PEMBERTON 0 2 4 9 1 21 17 6 12 13 6
WSK SQUAMISH 1 8 17 58 9 71 30 12 22 21 12
K21 SEYMOUR PK 4 21 28 96 11 84 29 13 22 19 11
V44 NORTHSHORE 3 15 22 90 10 85 26 12 20 18 11
VANCOUVER HBR 3 16 19 77 8 78 24 11 19 17 10
YVR VANCOUVER INTL 3 13 14 60 5 69 21 10 17 15 9
V40 PORT MANN 4 20 23 70 9 72 27 13 20 17 10
V21 UBC RESEARCH 5 25 29 88 13 75 32 15 23 18 10
YXX ABBOTSFORD 8 18 26 51 12 55 31 14 21 16 9
YHE HOPE 12 11 15 18 7 20 23 8 13 11 4
K20 MT BAKER 13 14 22 53 15 34 35 15 20 16 8
COQUIHALLA SUM 3 6 6 6 1 7 13 3 7 6 2
HAL ALLISON PASS 3 2 3 4 1 7 16 4 9 7 2
WKV HOPE SLIDE 8 6 10 10 4 14 21 6 11 9 4
K19 HEMLOCK VALLEY 5 14 24 52 14 41 30 12 19 14 7
V12 SOOKECAMP 14 20 12 31 3 46 17 10 13 11 7
V41 GIBSONS 2 12 15 72 7 78 21 10 16 16 9
V17 SALTSPRING 6 10 7 19 2 41 10 7 9 8 6
V14 SECHELT 1 13 16 72 7 78 21 9 16 16 9
YPW POWELL RIVER 0 8 7 38 8 71 17 8 16 14 7
VANCOUVER ISLAND
ID Station Today Night Day2 Day3 Day4 Day5 Day6 Day7 Day8 Day9 Day10
YYJ VICTORIA INTL 9 11 8 18 1 32 10 6 8 7 5
WLM GONZALES 8 8 7 11 1 21 10 6 8 7 5
MT. WASHINGTON 0 6 12 22 14 80 15 9 18 16 9
YAZ TOFINO 0 17 11 44 31 146 18 15 24 20 14
YQQ COMOX 0 8 15 24 8 74 14 8 16 13 7
WQC PORT ALBERNI 0 11 13 38 16 122 15 11 20 16 8
YCD NANAIMO 2 8 10 25 3 60 13 8 13 11 6
YZT PORT HARDY 0 6 6 6 27 47 22 11 17 13 10
V04 WOSS CAMP 0 5 6 10 30 86 23 12 19 15 11
WEB ESTEVAN POINT 0 13 9 25 41 119 18 14 22 19 14
V15 BOWSER 0 11 14 20 8 85 13 8 16 13 6

3) Having gotten your attention, a handy resource for this pattern can be found at this link. Click on the colorful Day 4 Forecast from the 12Z run, and/or the Day 5 Forecast from the 00Z run today: In this imagery, multi-color plumes directed above 49 degrees north are not good for our health. Or wealth.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/psd2/coastal/satres/data/html/ar_detect_gfs_new.php

4) Here’s another handy site, set up especially for us by the irreplaceable Lewis Poulin at the Canadian Centre for Modeling in Montreal. This site is handy because it can help us start attaching some probability to a potentially significant event this weekend.

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/CMOI/cmc-prob-products/2014030400_WINTERQUILT_DAY1-7.html

Note the high probability of 25mm in 24 hours on Day 5…hint-hint again.

Ps the ‘homepage’ for these maps can be found at:

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/CMOI/cmc-prob-products/

5) Here are some comments from Seattle NWS courtesy of 2010 Olympic Team forecaster Doug Mcdonnal: (thanks Doug. I think!)

In most respects this is not a typical flood pattern for Western Washington. Rather than a classic Pineapple Express…or Atmospheric River…there will be short breaks between multiple fronts. And the snow level…while fairly high…will be lower than we usually see during significant flooding episodes.

However if the rainfall amounts that are forecast DO occur…then the Skokomish River will very likely flood and flooding would also be possible on some of our other most-flood prone rivers. With model uncertainty high…the office opted to issue a broad brush hydrologic outlook covering basically the entire forecast area. We will let that stand for now…

All this to say: if you are headed to the back-country this weekend YOU NEED TO PLAN AROUND THE WEATHER!

I’ll keep you posted with updates.

dj

ps Moyie is in the Kootenays between Creston and Cranbrook. Yak Peak is near the Coquilhalla Summit.

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