13 January, 2014 08:13

A strong northwest flow will guide a frontal wave across eastern B.C. today giving moderate to heavy qpf and extreme westerly winds on the ridge top of the eastern ranges.

This afternoon, in the wake of this system, a ridge will build from the southwest and guide a series of storms towards the north coast, northern BC and southwest Yukon.

A warm front will move into these areas tonight followed by a cold front on Tuesday.
There is a subtropical moisture connection to the cold front so there will be very heavy qpf on the coast in addition to high freezing levels and extreme southwest at the mountain-tops.

Southern BC will remain relatively dry Monday night and Tuesday.

On Tuesday night the north coast cold front will moves southeast and weaken as the offshore ridge rebuilds.

From Wednesday through Friday the dominant synoptic feature will be a warm upper ridge centred along the coast keeping all regions, except the north coast and White Pass, dry and mild.

Models are in agreement through the first 48 to 60 hours so confidence is high in the evolution of the synoptic pattern although qpf details are still uncertain for for the north coast and White Pass tonight and Tuesday. At this point the GEM solution seems reasonable.

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