13 May, 2013 09:55

Started: 13/05/2013 5:55 AM by Loney

13 May 2013

Not much time due to technical difficulties with forecast transmission involving Scribe this morning for most forecasts. Suffice it to say that muich of the reasoning given by Day shift continues through today. A weak near-stationary front lying over the south coast this morning will intensify today ahead of a sharp upper trough. A band of rainfall is currently moving into Howe Sound, where the highest rain amounts are expected today (20-30 mm). The north shore should see 25 mm. These QPF totals are in line with previous model runs. When the front moves inland, the precipitation could intensify in the cold unstable air for places like WSK and the LFV. Embedded convection is likely and following shift will need to be vigilant with local rainfall amounts/convergence zones. The 6Z LAM was not bullish on rainfall amounts for the GVRD lowlands, instead keeping much of the rainfall totals heavily terrain dependent and the valley, but even then, the LAM tended to be well under the REG and GBL totals in GETPCN. As for the Interior, some upslope in the SW flow aloft ahead of the baroclinic zone will give way to increasingly unstable showers/embedded TSRA late this afternoon or evening. Low topped CBs likely as system is quite progressive and ridging aloft already moves in by late evening. Precip totals will likely be light to moderate for the vallies with local mdt with a thundershower; however PCP water values were not overly impressive, generally between 10-15. Best dynamics is SE BC corner where extensive jet depth with abundant shear, with slight instability.

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